Bullish Scenario (≈45% probability) — “Dovish Cut / Weak USD”

FOMC outcome =
• Fed cuts rates 25 bps
• Powell signals more cuts in 2026
• Inflation commentary is soft; economic risks highlighted
• Dot-plot shifts lower
Market reaction
• USD weakens
• US real yields fall
• Risk appetite improves → safe-haven flows decrease slightly but this is outweighed by lower yields
Gold technical reaction
• Break above $4,264 resistance
• Momentum buyers enter
• Trend continuation toward cycle highs
Estimated price path
• Immediate reaction: +$25 to +$40
• 1–4 weeks:
o Target 1: $4,280
o Target 2: $4,320 – $4,350
o Stretch target: $4,400